Do You Really Know What Your Employees Think?
01:54 PM Wednesday July 22, 2009
By John Baldoni
The Pew Research's News Interest Index for a week in July concluded that people surveyed were actually more interested in stories about Michael Jackson's death, as well as the economy and health care reform, than news media's coverage provided.
With the glut of coverage and cries of overkill for these stories, this is a surprising revelation. The lesson for leaders? If you want to know what people are thinking, don't rely on second-hand reports from others. Ask employees yourself and listen to what they have to say. Political campaigns are particularly expert in this area when they test market messages and conduct tracking polls. By measuring impact and understanding, they are able to shape and re-shape their messages for greater impact. (Some may call this pandering; others may regard it as responsiveness.)
Corporate leaders do not need to hire pollsters but they do need to be more cognizant of the impact of their messages. Most managers are very good at giving messages; following up with repeated iterations is more of a challenge, but a greater challenge is often gauging the effect of the message. We see this most evidently during organizational transformation efforts. There is a lot of energy and enthusiasm expended in getting the word out about the "big change" but relatively little follow up in terms of listening and evaluating impact. To address this, consider these suggestions when crafting your next communication plan.
Walk the halls. Make yourself visible to your team by spending time in their work areas. Be approachable so people can engage you in conversation. Be prepared to begin conversations about new product launches, service improvements, or efficiency initiatives. Ask people how these things are working for them.
Listen to feedback. Give them time to respond. Ask follow-up questions related to their experiences so you get beyond the seventh-grader's answer to how are things at school — fine! When you hear such responses, people may be too timid to voice an honest answer. Be conversational to encourage folks to share more information.
Report on feedback. Let your colleagues know what you are hearing and what it means. For example, if you are discovering that customers hate the service upgrade, report on it. Likewise if employees are enthusiastic about an initiative, you can be heartened, but stay tuned for further updates. Many initiatives are well received, only to die later from lack of support.
Report on revisions. If you make a major change, or even a minor one, communicate it. Also, do more follow up to see how it is working. This is especially critical when there is initial resistance. Few things are more powerful than a senior executive saying, "we heard you and we are making changes." That gives a leader instant credibility, as long as there is appropriate follow through.
Conduct a communications audit. Corporate leaders do not need to conduct tracking polls but communication audits around what people are thinking, feeling, and doing related to company initiatives can be useful. Such audits can be done quickly and cost effectively online. Again, report the results to everyone so you keep the organization up to date.
There is an additional point about the prevailing news coverage that is relevant to communicating in tough times. While economic news is generally bleak right now, there are periodic bits of good news, "green shoots" as pundits are fond of calling them. If those green shoots are related to your business, make certain you make a point of linking that good news to what your team does. Do not assume people will figure it out; connect the dots for them. For example, if you are in the alternative energy field, talk up federal funding as well as uptick in consumer awareness and corporate demand.
Leaders need to keep their fingers on the pulses of their organizations. Many executives fear being blindsided by what they do not know — like lack of capability, resources, manpower and talent that will affect business growth. Those executives who spend time out and about with their people have few such fears. They know the score and as a result, can steer their organizations with a greater sense of awareness.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Treasury Yields to Fall, Fibonacci Signals
Treasury Yields to Fall, Fibonacci Signals: Technical Analysis
By Yoshiaki Nohara
July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Ten-year Treasury yields are likely to decline, paring their biggest weekly increase in more than a month, a technical indicator suggests.
Yields may fall to 3.43 percent this week after they failed on July 20 to break above 3.72 percent, a figure that represents a key threshold based on the Fibonacci sequence of numbers, said Kazuaki Oh’e, a bond salesman in Tokyo at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, the nation’s fifth-biggest bank.
The 3.72 percent yield marks a 61.8 percent retracement of the decline from an eight-month high of 4 percent on June 11 to a two-month low of 3.26 percent on July 13.
“The yield is likely to fall a bit further this week,” Oh’e said. “It may reach the next support level” of 3.43 percent, which is the 23.6 percent retracement level, he said.
The 10-year yield was unchanged at 3.48 percent as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. It fell 12 basis points, or 0.12 percentage point, in New York yesterday.
Yields jumped 34 basis points last week, the biggest increase since the five days ended June 5.
Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break above resistance or below support indicates yields may move to the next stage. Levels used in the analysis are based on a sequence identified in the 13th century by Italian mathematician Leonardo da Pisa.
By Yoshiaki Nohara
July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Ten-year Treasury yields are likely to decline, paring their biggest weekly increase in more than a month, a technical indicator suggests.
Yields may fall to 3.43 percent this week after they failed on July 20 to break above 3.72 percent, a figure that represents a key threshold based on the Fibonacci sequence of numbers, said Kazuaki Oh’e, a bond salesman in Tokyo at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, the nation’s fifth-biggest bank.
The 3.72 percent yield marks a 61.8 percent retracement of the decline from an eight-month high of 4 percent on June 11 to a two-month low of 3.26 percent on July 13.
“The yield is likely to fall a bit further this week,” Oh’e said. “It may reach the next support level” of 3.43 percent, which is the 23.6 percent retracement level, he said.
The 10-year yield was unchanged at 3.48 percent as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. It fell 12 basis points, or 0.12 percentage point, in New York yesterday.
Yields jumped 34 basis points last week, the biggest increase since the five days ended June 5.
Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break above resistance or below support indicates yields may move to the next stage. Levels used in the analysis are based on a sequence identified in the 13th century by Italian mathematician Leonardo da Pisa.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Friday 07/10/2009
After a significant rally higher, Bonds have been ripe for some profit taking and a
reversal lower – and yesterday’s weak Treasury auction results triggered a plunge
lower in pricing. This morning, Bonds are fighting to regain some lost ground as
prices sit almost exactly between a floor of support at the 50-day Moving Average,
and a ceiling of resistance at the 100-day Moving Average.
The economic calendar has been light this week, and as we mentioned yesterday,
Traders seem to be scrounging around under the bleachers searching for morsels
of good news. But this morning, two different economic reports have already
shaken things up a bit for Stocks.
First, the Balance of Trade, which measures the difference between our imports
and exports, came in at a surprisingly narrow reading of $26 Billion in May –
dropping 9.8% compared to the previous month’s reading, as exports rose and
imports declined. Not only did this month’s reading come in significantly off from
expectations that the deficit would widen to $30 Billion, but it also was the lowest
deficit in nearly a decade.
While some may try to grab headlines and take credit for their efforts to narrow the
trade deficit, those in the know – like our Mortgage Market Guide subscribers – can
clearly see that this is simply the result of a weakened Dollar against other
currencies, making our goods appear relatively cheaper. Additionally, the report is
actually an indicator of the continued weakness of the economy, as demand for
imports has decreased for the 10th straight month. This does mean that GDP may
not fall as sharply in the second quarter as industry experts were expecting, due to
the relative rise in exports. Remember, rising exports add to GDP, while falling
imports are subtracted from it. All in all – Stocks weren’t crazy about the report,
and money moved from Stocks into Bonds, helping Bond pricing move higher this
morning.
Then the Consumer Sentiment Index arrived at 64.6, far uglier than the expected
read of 70.3. Clearly, consumers continue to feel concerned about the economy –
again, not good news for Stocks, but benefitting Bonds.
While Bonds are improving a bit this morning based on the economic report
headlines – we’re still concerned about the overall outlook for Bonds in the near
term. They have many factors working against them – overhead resistance at the
100-day Moving Average, a continued overbought state with the beginnings of a
negative Stochastic Crossover, and the relentless supply of Treasury Bonds coming
on the market that need to be absorbed. So when we have opportunities to lock
clients in at lower rates, where it clearly makes sense for them to refinance – we
want to do so and not be greedy or overly optimistic. At the same time, we do want
to try and safely squeeze as much out of each rally as we can – the recent rally is a
good example. But knowing that there are both fundamental and technical
obstacles makes this a challenging task, and it also can be a bit of a challenge for
you to relay this information to your clients…as many of them can be greedy,
searching for rates that are unattainable while risking significant savings. We’ll
continue to work together and use the illustrations available to get those clients to
make smart decisions
reversal lower – and yesterday’s weak Treasury auction results triggered a plunge
lower in pricing. This morning, Bonds are fighting to regain some lost ground as
prices sit almost exactly between a floor of support at the 50-day Moving Average,
and a ceiling of resistance at the 100-day Moving Average.
The economic calendar has been light this week, and as we mentioned yesterday,
Traders seem to be scrounging around under the bleachers searching for morsels
of good news. But this morning, two different economic reports have already
shaken things up a bit for Stocks.
First, the Balance of Trade, which measures the difference between our imports
and exports, came in at a surprisingly narrow reading of $26 Billion in May –
dropping 9.8% compared to the previous month’s reading, as exports rose and
imports declined. Not only did this month’s reading come in significantly off from
expectations that the deficit would widen to $30 Billion, but it also was the lowest
deficit in nearly a decade.
While some may try to grab headlines and take credit for their efforts to narrow the
trade deficit, those in the know – like our Mortgage Market Guide subscribers – can
clearly see that this is simply the result of a weakened Dollar against other
currencies, making our goods appear relatively cheaper. Additionally, the report is
actually an indicator of the continued weakness of the economy, as demand for
imports has decreased for the 10th straight month. This does mean that GDP may
not fall as sharply in the second quarter as industry experts were expecting, due to
the relative rise in exports. Remember, rising exports add to GDP, while falling
imports are subtracted from it. All in all – Stocks weren’t crazy about the report,
and money moved from Stocks into Bonds, helping Bond pricing move higher this
morning.
Then the Consumer Sentiment Index arrived at 64.6, far uglier than the expected
read of 70.3. Clearly, consumers continue to feel concerned about the economy –
again, not good news for Stocks, but benefitting Bonds.
While Bonds are improving a bit this morning based on the economic report
headlines – we’re still concerned about the overall outlook for Bonds in the near
term. They have many factors working against them – overhead resistance at the
100-day Moving Average, a continued overbought state with the beginnings of a
negative Stochastic Crossover, and the relentless supply of Treasury Bonds coming
on the market that need to be absorbed. So when we have opportunities to lock
clients in at lower rates, where it clearly makes sense for them to refinance – we
want to do so and not be greedy or overly optimistic. At the same time, we do want
to try and safely squeeze as much out of each rally as we can – the recent rally is a
good example. But knowing that there are both fundamental and technical
obstacles makes this a challenging task, and it also can be a bit of a challenge for
you to relay this information to your clients…as many of them can be greedy,
searching for rates that are unattainable while risking significant savings. We’ll
continue to work together and use the illustrations available to get those clients to
make smart decisions
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Tuesday 07/07/2009
Bonds continue to dance just under a thick dual layer of resistance
formed by the 50-day Moving Average and recent highs…and Bonds
might find it hard to bust through the overhead ceiling and find much
improvement today unless Stocks roll over.
After struggling most of the day, Stocks mustered a run higher late
yesterday to erase their losses and actually finish the day with slight
gains. The Dow finished a modest 44 points higher on the day, while
the S&P 500 was higher by 2 points. Overnight, European Stocks
continued the climb, after manufacturing orders in Germany reported
the highest jump in almost two years. The report helped ease some
concerns that a global economic recovery is stagnating.
But even given the positive news from across the pond, Stocks
opened lower again this morning, despite a small rebound in the price
of Oil and rumors about a potential second economic stimulus
package. Vice President Joe Biden commented over the weekend
that “the administration miscalculated how bad the jobless problem
would be”, prompting speculation that more stimulus might be in the
works during 2009. More stimulus would translate into more
inflation…and also would mean more Treasury auctions to pay for it,
creating even more supply to be sopped up. Many members of
Congress admittedly voted to pass the first stimulus package without
even reading through it, only to now look back and discover that most
of the almost $800B was not earmarked to actually stimulate the
economy, but more towards social programs. This will be an important
story to watch as it certainly could create a negative impact on Bonds
and home loan rates down the road.
With no Economic Reports scheduled for release today, Traders will
likely remain cautious and keep their eyes on the initial second-quarter
corporate results due out later this week. Also in the news this week is
another round of Treasury securities up for auction, totaling $73 Billion.
Depending on how the sale is received by the markets, it could put
pressure on Bonds, particularly in light of the recent comments on
added stimulus.
Bonds are in a tough spot, with both technical indicators and
fundamentals working against them, so a Locking approach might
normally be more appropriate. However, the picture for Stocks may
even be uglier than it is for Bonds – and a sell-off in Stocks would
mean that some of that money would find its way into Bonds and
potentially push prices higher…or at least support present levels.
We’re going to Float – but not be cavalier about it, as the current
situation needs to be monitored carefully.
formed by the 50-day Moving Average and recent highs…and Bonds
might find it hard to bust through the overhead ceiling and find much
improvement today unless Stocks roll over.
After struggling most of the day, Stocks mustered a run higher late
yesterday to erase their losses and actually finish the day with slight
gains. The Dow finished a modest 44 points higher on the day, while
the S&P 500 was higher by 2 points. Overnight, European Stocks
continued the climb, after manufacturing orders in Germany reported
the highest jump in almost two years. The report helped ease some
concerns that a global economic recovery is stagnating.
But even given the positive news from across the pond, Stocks
opened lower again this morning, despite a small rebound in the price
of Oil and rumors about a potential second economic stimulus
package. Vice President Joe Biden commented over the weekend
that “the administration miscalculated how bad the jobless problem
would be”, prompting speculation that more stimulus might be in the
works during 2009. More stimulus would translate into more
inflation…and also would mean more Treasury auctions to pay for it,
creating even more supply to be sopped up. Many members of
Congress admittedly voted to pass the first stimulus package without
even reading through it, only to now look back and discover that most
of the almost $800B was not earmarked to actually stimulate the
economy, but more towards social programs. This will be an important
story to watch as it certainly could create a negative impact on Bonds
and home loan rates down the road.
With no Economic Reports scheduled for release today, Traders will
likely remain cautious and keep their eyes on the initial second-quarter
corporate results due out later this week. Also in the news this week is
another round of Treasury securities up for auction, totaling $73 Billion.
Depending on how the sale is received by the markets, it could put
pressure on Bonds, particularly in light of the recent comments on
added stimulus.
Bonds are in a tough spot, with both technical indicators and
fundamentals working against them, so a Locking approach might
normally be more appropriate. However, the picture for Stocks may
even be uglier than it is for Bonds – and a sell-off in Stocks would
mean that some of that money would find its way into Bonds and
potentially push prices higher…or at least support present levels.
We’re going to Float – but not be cavalier about it, as the current
situation needs to be monitored carefully.
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